A new war would risk Azerbaijan’s petro-wealth, but irrational behavior is all too common in the Caucasus, says The Economist in contemplations on possible results of Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian presidents’ meeting in Kazan on June 24.

“A renewed conflict in a region that includes Turkey, Iran, Russia and Georgia is the stuff of nightmares.

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has invested time and effort in what will be his fifth trilateral meeting. Yet many experts who have watched these peace talks fail repeatedly remain skeptical. The two countries’ semi-authoritarian leaders seem to prefer process to results and have done nothing to prepare people for peace,” reads the article.

According to the author there exist certain doubts over Russia’s motives. Grigory Shvedov, editor of Caucasian Knot online news agency, argues that Russia’s strategic aim is to increase its economic and political influence on the Caucasus region.

“Turkey would indeed benefit from a peace deal, but its sway over Azerbaijan is limited despite its big Azeri population.

If the two leaders agree in Kazan, it will be a big step, even if it leaves room for new disputes. One thing is certain: making peace in Nagorno-Karabakh requires the skill of walking over a minefield,” concludes the author.