The primary actor when considering the prospects for a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement is not Azerbaijan or Armenia but, rather, Russia. Russia’s primary goal on the territory of former Soviet Union is to advance its interests in these countries, blocking the interests of foreign powers and particularly the West, says American think tank STRATFOR.  “This is especially the case in the Caucasus region, which is made up of Armenia, Azerbaijan as well as Georgia, and these three countries are heavily pursued by the West. Within these pursuits, Azerbaijan is the key as it has the largest population in the region, it borders both Russia and Iran in strategic points, and perhaps most importantly, it has significant quantities of oil and natural gas. These energy resources allow Azerbaijan to be a significant exporter of energy to the West and therefore serve as a threat to Russia’s energy relationship and political relationship with Europe. This then explains Russia’s relationship with Armenia, which Russia supports politically, economically and has a military presence within Armenia. This also explains Russia’s position on Nagorno-Karabakh, which is to appear that Russia is trying to do everything it can as a negotiator to reach a settlement while in reality do everything it can to prevent such a settlement,” reads the article.  As long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unsolved, Azerbaijan’s access to the west via Turkey is blocked through this corridor.  “And while Azerbaijan has been increasing its military expenditures in the light of growing energy exports, the fact of Russia’s military presence in Armenia will serve as a significant blocking force to Azerbaijan. In addition, Russia has military presence in two breakaway territories of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, giving Russia even more leverage over Azerbaijan. Therefore, it ultimately boils down to Russia’s position when assessing the prospects for any meaningful change to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh,” concludes STRATFOR.