The Karabakh conflict is expanding and escalating, said the UK analyst and journalist Thomas de Waal in an interview with Ahval.
According to him, the geography in this conflict means that you will have to fight at several points simultaneously.
The Karabakh war of the 1990s was a local, low-tech conflict with poor weaponry. The difference now is that this is a war between two well-armed states, especially on the side of Azerbaijan. But Armenia also uses long-range missiles and controls mountainous terrain, he said.
Speaking about Turkish interference, Thomas de Waal noted that it is very serious.
According to him, such Turkish participation is a source of fear in Armenia at the DNA level. Even taking into account the indirect participation of the Turkish army in this conflict, this is a huge problem for Armenians. Turkey seems to want to fill the international vacuum. The US and Europe are missing, and the Russians really don't know what to do. Turkey and Azerbaijan are trying to take advantage of this indecision and weakness in order to disrupt the OSCE process and remake it in their favor. It looks like this is their strategy.
He noted that the United States has no desire to intervene in the conflict for various reasons. The Russians have troops in Armenia, but not in Azerbaijan. If Russia intervenes directly, it would jeopardize its relationship with its neighbor. At the same time, its reputation in Armenia is falling due to lack of reaction. The better Azerbaijan is, the less influence Russia will have in resolving the conflict.
According to him, Erdogan is testing Putin's patience. These two leaders have respected each other so far. But direct intervention in a region in which Russia has influence could change rates. Confronting each other through intermediaries in Libya is one thing, but direct participation in the Caucasus may mean the beginning of an antagonistic story. Russia has leverage over Turkey in many places.