By Albert Khachatryan

Armenia’s imports from Turkey have been snowballing over the recent years, but it would be too much to speak of both states’ equal foreign trade turnover. Figuratively speaking, it has been a game with only one goal. In 2009, Turkish exports to Armenia exceeded Armenian exports to Turkey 149 times. This is typical of the whole period of post-Soviet Armenia’s trade relations with Turkey.

Last year, Turkey’s exports to Armenia, though showed a decrease of as much as 33.6%, totaled U.S. $178m. Armenia’s exports to Turkey were, however, merely symbolic, less than U.S. $1.2m.

The present state of the Armenian industry does not seem to be the reason for hope for anything better in Armenia’s trade relations with other countries. Raw materials, (ferromolybdenum and copper concentrate), re-imported cut diamonds, Armenian brandy, and aluminum foil constitute the lion’s share of Armenia’s imports.

Looking through the statistical table showing Armenia’s exports to other states, one will see that that Turkey’s imports of almost all Armenian products are equal to zero. Of course, Armenia exports something to Turkey. In 2008, Turkey imported 300 kg of synthetic rubber, and 400kg of paper and paper items from Armenia – a derisory amount in terms of money. Armenia’s exports of unwrought furs and wrought leather totaled U.S. $1.5m and of aluminum articles, U.S. $170,000 – comparatively high figures.

Besides oil and oil products, machinery and equipment, pharmaceutical products, dye stuff, ferrous materials, rubber and other products constitute a large share of Turkey’s imports. The country’s industry needs raw materials and semi-finished products. This actually accounts for Turkey’s “import geography” – Saudi Arabia, Russia, a number of European countries, as well as China and the United States. Like Armenia, Turkey has a strongly negative foreign trade balance. Turkey’s balance of trade deficit is expected to reach 22.579bn liras (about 5,700bn AMD).

The Turkish Central Bank forecasts economic growth of 3.9% and an inflation rate of 7.5% this year. Since inflation actually means a higher consumer price index, the prices for the products imported to Armenia may rise as well. Armenia’s imports from Turkey are mainly shoes and clothing, plastic items and household appliances — the commodities Armenia would abundantly supply to the “Soviet” market.

Armenians are tolerant and they do not make distinctions between countries of origin. Evidence thereof is Turkish goods abundantly supplied to the Armenian market, which are in demand in the country. A relatively low price, along with a relatively high quality, accounts for the high demand for the goods.

It is noteworthy that, for the present, all the talks about Armenian exports to Turkey are about electricity, flour and other products without the inscription “Made in Armenia” on them. We can only guess at whether this “preselection” is pure coincidence or other factors account for it. In any case, an opinion is often expressed that the Turkish authorities just imposed a ban on the import of Armenian products.

A number of Armenian industrial enterprises, first of all the Nairit plant and the Vanadzor chemicals plant, have a potential for exporting their products to Turkey. However, despite repeated attempts, the enterprises are not operating at full capacity.

Specifically, the Vanadzor chemicals plant mastered the production of fertilizers a few years ago, but the pilot production proved to be the first and the last stage. Experts, however, say real preconditions are available for the export of fertilizers to the eastern regions of Turkey, which border on Armenia.

T.P.