The recently signed Armenian-Turkish agreement is evidence of Moscow’s long-term strategy in the post-Soviet area, said Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Speaking of the key points of the agreement, he said that Moscow guarantees Armenia’s territorial integrity, without focusing on the security of the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders alone. Russia’s steps is also a signal to Azerbaijan, which is speaking of returning Nagorno-Karabakh at any cost, that war with Armenia is ruled out, RFE/RL reports, quoting the expert.

According to him, Armenia, which is strategically isolated, received security guarantees from Russia.

As regards the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Trenin said that the Armenian-Russian agreement may inaugurate CSTO reforms. “Actions aimed at conflict prevention require serious CSTO reforms. This is a prerequisite for the CSTO to become a serious security-ensuring agency,” Trenin said.

The most complicated situation is in Nagorno-Karabakh, the expert said.

“By providing broader guarantees to Armenia Russia warned Baku a war could not be a means of defending political interests. At president, Moscow has to encourage Armenia and Baku to reach a peace agreement,” Trenin said. Russia, assisted by the other OSCe Minsk Group Co-Chairs, as well as by the regional power Turkey, is supposed lead the parties to a final settlement of the conflict.