In case it’s not possible to somehow restrain Baku’s provocative activity, local armed conflict may break out in Nagorno-Karabakh, Vladimir Yevseyev, director of the Social and Political Research Centre and military expert told Armenian News – NEWS.am.

According to him, the current exacerbation in the Karabakh conflict zone was expected, since the Azerbaijani side is eager to draw attention to the Karabakh issue against the background of the Ukrainian crisis. “It was clear that before the preparation to the first European Games in Baku, the exacerbation seemed quite possible. Only in that case nobody would attend the European Games,” Yevseyev said.

In the expert’s words, the conflict is gradually increasing, the level of applied armament growing. “Tanks and mortar launchers were used in March, that is, the used armament is being upgraded; exacerbation is growing, this being accompanied by diversions – infiltrations through the first line of defense and mine laying, which wasn’t observed on such a scale before. All this is indicative of the fact that Baku is seeking to exacerbate the conflict, thinking it can stop any time,” Yevseyev stressed.

According to him, certain statements on the possibility of returning Karabakh and on Azerbaijani side’s readiness to settle this issue by using force are constantly being issued. These are elements of pressure, which can sometimes result in certain border conflicts, the expert said. “I think if Azerbaijan doesn’t stop this policy, a conflict will definitely break out. Generally speaking, I don’t like this tension at all,” he said.  

Azerbaijan’s population is very much afraid, according to the expert, and to calm them down, Azerbaijani officers are knowingly using heavy armament, this further deteriorating the situation. “I’m very much concerned about the presence of Smerch launch rocket system of the Azerbaijani side, which can be used against the civilian population, as well as the presence of a [heavy flamethrower] system like “Solntsepek.” I think the issue on this kind of activity must be posed very strictly. There are certain measures that should be taken: removal of snipers as a first measure and removal of heavy armaments to an appropriate distance. Mine layers also need to be excluded,” Vladimir Yevseyev said.

If the issue is not posed this way, he said, a local conflict may finally break out, which can grow into a regional war. This, according to Yevseyev, isn’t in the interest of Russia, Turkey, Iran, as well as Armenians and Azerbaijanis themselves. “There’s no actual balance violation,  that is, blitzkrieg in Karabakh zone is impossible. But the Azerbaijani militaries are trying to persuade their leadership that they are able to settle the issue by force. I think this kind of activity demands universal condemnation. They indulge in wishful thinking and contribute to the emergence of border conflicts. This is an extremely wrong and shortfall policy,” Yevseyev concluded.  

After the European Games in Baku, the situation on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijani has rather exacerbated. The adversary is periodically violating the ceasefire.