YEREVAN. – There is real and legitimate concern that there could be another outbreak of large-scale violence in Karabakh, editor of Caucasus Survey Laurence Broers told Armenian News-NEWS.am.

Mr. Broers, associate fellow at the Chatham House, believes there has been a very disappointing drop in the momentum generated by the Vienna and Petersburg agreements. Despite a relatively quiet period after the April violence, “this autumn we appear to be back to business as usual with the sides exchanging accusations about stalling the talks, episodes of ceasefire violations and military posturing with large-scale exercises and new equipment.”

“Rather than enabling the peace process, the leaderships in Armenia and Azerbaijan have spent the time since April dealing with domestic challenges and securing their power. The international environment meanwhile has been very unsettled, as everyone thinks through the impact of the US election result, and what it means for Russia, for the South Caucasus, for the Minsk Process. A Trump administration almost certainly means less attention, less focus and less leverage for collective mediation in the Karabakh peace process,” Mr. Broers said in an e-mail interview.

The expert recalls the street demonstrations and expressions of popular sentiments related to the Karabakh issue “of a kind that we haven't seen for a long time.” However, a presidential meeting seems as elusive as usual, and a foreign ministerial meeting in the fringes of an OSCE Ministerial Council session in Hamburg in December doesn't seem to promise much of a breakthrough.

“Instead there is a dangerous brinkmanship situation, where either publicly acting to confirm the agreements made in May or continuing with deadlock risk popular anger. There may be incentives to take advantage of the fluid international situation and escalate again. None of the risks of a large-scale war happening as a result of a ‘limited’ escalation have been reduced since April, and the situation remains extremely dangerous,” he added.