The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said in a new forecast that the war in Ukraine will continue until 2026. Last year, the continuation of hostilities until the end of next year was assumed under the negative scenario, according to a statement on the fund's website.

Under this year's negative scenario, the IMF believes the war will end in mid-2026, with the fund noting serious risks for Kyiv in terms of support from Western countries and energy security.

“The war in Ukraine continues to inflict growing economic, social, and humanitarian damage. Attacks on energy infrastructure have caused severe economic damage and losses, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. The war is expected to continue over the next year, putting pressure on spending and opening up additional funding needs,” the report said.

The war is forcing the Ukrainian authorities to put more money for defense in the 2025 budget than originally planned.

Serious social and economic problems, as well as tougher mobilization are already leading to a shortage of labor in the country. The IMF estimates that more than 10.3 million people remain displaced, both internally and among refugees. At the same time, food insecurity affects a fifth of the population.

According to the fund's forecast, Ukraine's debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 100 percent next year and rise to nearly 300 percent by 2029, in case of a negative scenario.

The IMF also worsened the forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth for 2025 to 2.5%. At the same time, before the war this indicator was 3.4%, and this year - 3%. The inflation rate in 2025 is forecast to be 9%, which is similar to the pre-war level of 9.4%.