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April 19
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The Aliyev-controlled media proclaimed a "new stage of national struggle," directly implying a claim on the entire territory of Armenia. The published article is accompanied by a corresponding map, and in general the article and the map are obviously designed to produce a well-known psychological effect.

So, the Azerbaijani authorities' mouthpiece haqqin.az published a conceptual article entitled "The New Stage of National Struggle: West Azerbaijan".

Among other things, the author of the article writes: "This stage is more difficult than the war for Karabakh. For its realization it is necessary to conjugate the use of many tools and a number of circumstances, which can be put together in this or that "pattern". They need to be anticipated, which is a more complex level of forecasting and managing international processes than was the case even on the eve of the operation to return the lost Azerbaijani lands. In the case of Karabakh, Baku has easily solved the problem. Now we are talking about the next level of the game - a combination of long-term political steps, socio-economic measures and military training principles for the coming 2020s.

Here is what should be done first:

  1. Create a reasoned information base in the media and widely publicize the Azerbaijani position on leading international platforms. This also includes information work with leading socio-political and scientific centers of foreign countries. Azerbaijan's position and argumentation should be weighty, understandable and accessible in different languages. Actually, this is what was done in the Karabakh conflict; now it is only necessary to take into account the mistakes and omissions made in previous years.
  2. Create a regular international forum devoted to the problem of the return of Azerbaijanis to their native lands. The international conference on the problems of Western Azerbaijan, the idea of which was voiced by Ilham Aliyev, could become a formal organizational platform. During it, an international legal form of Azerbaijan's claims related to the realization of economic and social rights in the territories of present-day Armenia can be worked out.
  3. To develop a concept and a program for social and economic interaction of Azerbaijan in the region of Zangezur corridor with all interested parties. This could be done within the framework of the platform on stability and development in the Caucasus proposed shortly after the end of military operations in the fall of 2020. The pace and scale of reconstruction of the returned territories will play an essential role in this process.
  4. Strengthen the military preparations at the borders of Armenia from the side of the East Zangezur economic region and from the side of the Nakhichevan autonomy".
    As for the "force argument", the author of the article believes: "It is not necessary that the situation will force Azerbaijan to use military force in order to implement the Trilateral Moscow Agreement, but we must be ready and consider such a possibility, including as an argument in the negotiations. The opposing side should understand that the military scenario is a very realistic prospect for Baku to pursue its national interests. Of course, Azerbaijan is limited in the use of military force on the territory of Armenia because of the acute international reaction. On the other hand, against the background of the war in Ukraine, the operation to introduce military forces along the limited spatial corridor will not be a sufficient basis for the critical pressure on Baku, comparable to the pressure that the countries of the Euro-Atlantic community currently exert on Russia.

At the same time, it should be said directly: Azerbaijan will be able to withstand a number of economic sanctions, given that the vast majority of Baku's trade and economic relations are formed in the Ankara-Moscow-Persian Gulf-CIS square. We should also take into account the fact that Europe is very heterogeneous. It is unlikely that France's possible economic sanctions against Azerbaijan will be supported by Italy, which depends on Azerbaijani and Kazakh oil supplies. We should not expect the Western companies to leave the Caspian oil fields either".

"But it should not come to the step of military compulsion to realize the agreement if Yerevan agrees to switch to practical implementation of Zangezur corridor project and other political arrangements concerning common borders with Azerbaijan. In this case, it will be possible to solve the problems of displaced persons and Azerbaijani refugees in a normal legal way. We just need to move in this direction", the author writes, devoting some more paragraphs to the threats against Armenia.

Thus, it is quite obvious that Baku is not only in a hurry, trying to get the most from the favorable moment, but also shows an extreme degree of nervousness. Most likely, Baku understands that the wind is changing direction.

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