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Armenian Genocide recognition campaign is gaining pace in Europe and the Americas. Is it realistic to expect recognition from Turkey as the ultimate addressee? In his interview to Armenian News-NEWS.am the Regional Studies Center (Yerevan) head Richard Giragosian reminds, the 2012 is the third year of the Genocide commemoration events by Turks in Turkey – who should not be mistrusted as “deep state” actors.

As we are approaching the April 24 again, we see two interesting trends. The first is that the movement on recognition of the Genocide is actually growing much stronger after the events in the French parliament. The second interesting trend, in my opinion, is that every year when we commemorate another April 24, the pressure on Turkey is increasing. In this context, this is only a matter of time – especially as Turkey is approaching the 100 anniversary [of Armenian Genocide] – the Turkish state will no longer be able to sustain its policy of Genocide denial. Speaking on diplomacy, because of the failure of the normalization process, Armenia is actually in a stronger position.

Do you notice any signs of disappointment within the European Armenian communities, after France has so far stopped halfway in accepting denial penalization bill?

If you are asking whether I notice disappointment, I certainly do; do I notice giving up – definitely not. In a broader perspective, the most important is the arena for the Genocide recognition. The real important arena for the Genocide recognition – both for Armenian government and the Diaspora – is Turkey itself. What is also important is that this April 24th will be the third year of the Genocide commemoration events by Turks in Turkey. Thereupon, we need to work with and strengthen the Turks in Turkey who recognize the Genocide.

Do you believe that commemoration events in Turkey have in any way been staged by the state?

Certainly, not. It is just the opposite: when we adopt that attitude, we actually hurt our allies in Turkey. The reason I am so adamant about this is because many of the Turkish intellectuals who recognize the Genocide are also going to prison for fighting for democracy in Turkey.

In other words, there is no state conspiracy; the state is actually under pressure from within. Unfortunately, much of this new context is due to one man and one death. In other words, unfortunately, Hrant Dink did more with his death than he could have achieved in his lifetime. That was the spark that awakened many in Turkey to reassess the recognition of the Genocide.

Do you think that the advocacy of the Armenian Cause meets equal counter-efforts by the Turkish and Azerbaijani lobbies, e.g. in Bulgaria or in Germany?

The Armenian Diaspora worldwide – in Europe, North and South America, Russia – is much more politically sophisticated and much more powerful than either the Azerbaijani or Turkish Diaspora. The reason is that in America, France, Argentina or Russia they are powerful within those systems. In contrast, the Azerbaijani and the Turkish Diasporas are still outside those systems. They are much more nationalistic, which makes them less effective.

For example, the Armenians in America and in France, pursuing the recognition of Armenian Genocide, actually are strengthening American or French policy. At the same time, the Turkish Diaspora, struggling for denial of the Armenian Genocide in Bulgaria or Germany, is at the same time damaging these states as well.

For example, in the country I know best, the United States, Armenians are advocating for the Genocide recognition, but this was not seen as a treacherous act. However, the Turks in Bulgaria are trying to twist their government to join the lie.

Do you think that over the months after the downturn in Israeli-Turkish diplomatic relations, there has been any tangible progress in assistance of the Israeli lobby to Genocide recognition?

The Armenian genocide issue for Israel has become a convenient weapon against Turkey. That is also bad because the issue should not be used for French domestic political purpose, or as a measure of Israel’s political revenge against Turkey. This is a moral issue. As for the Jewish lobby, I would say, yes and no; tangible progress is not due to the Jewish lobbies, it is due to Armenian-American lobbies.

Do you think that if Obama uses the “genocide” term in English wording, it will attract American Armenian voters for his election campaign?

I disagree with the question, because actually for me it is not important whether any American president uses the word "genocide" or not. I am the grandson of a Genocide survivor. I do not need the American president to tell me what I know had happened. But what is interesting about the President Obama specifically, is that he chose to use the Armenian reference on purpose, to send an equally strong message to Turkey, using an Armenian phrase. For the American president, unfortunately, it is a lack of morality on Armenian foreign policy. However, again, it is Turkey that needs to recognize the Genocide, not Sweden, or the United States, or Greenland.

Do you think France will review Genocide denial penalization if it would be beneficial for any party?

I have no idea, because the French government told that it would like to draft another bill. However, I am very negative and skeptical, because this question was not about the Genocide; it was about Sarkozy’s political future.

The politicians that are in favor of Genocide recognition have a moral mission. The reason because it is important, and should be important, is not just because of the Armenians. In other words, denying the Armenian Genocide also damages the Rwanda Genocide, the Cambodian Genocide, and the Holocaust. At the same time, recognizing Genocide helps to prevent future genocides.

Recently the Armenian parliament rejected the bill on recognition of the Genocide of non-Armenian minorities in Ottoman Turkey: Assyrians, Greeks, and Yazidis. Do you think it is here that morality should win?

I was against it personally. This kind of efforts weakens the Armenian Genocide, or at least does not make it stronger. This is not to say that the Assyrian Genocide is not without merit, but only after achieving the recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey should we address this.

The Rwandan, Cambodian, Armenian Genocides and the Holocaust are at one level. These are historical facts. The Ukrainian Genocide, the Assyrian genocide, and Indian genocides are not at that level. There is international law and the resolution of the United Nations. As a small, weak state Armenia has to achieve the recognition of Armenian Genocide first.

Is this to say that the number of victims matters?

What matters is not the numbers but the numbers in a specific context. In other words, we need to be careful. If we use the Genocide term without legal definition, it weakens the Armenian Genocide. I am not talking in terms of morality; I am talking about the diplomacy and international law and politics. In terms of morality, of course, it is different. But in terms of policy and international law we need to be more careful.

Do you think that Turkey will meet obliging expectations of the international community as it moves closer to 2015?

I was sitting in Davutoglu’s office in July. I smelled the fear. It is clear that Turkey has always been afraid; it has been afraid for two reasons. The first reason is that they deny the Genocide while they know it was true, so they deny it in a paranoid fashion. In addition, every year that gets by puts more pressure on them. Their campaign of lies is weakening and they have that 100-year-long sword over their heads.

What we can expect is what is happening now: the trend. Turkish society is moving towards the recognition. Indeed, it is moving too slow and too incomplete. But look how far we have come in these five years. Books are being printed; newspaper articles are being published about the Armenian Genocide. There is no way the Turkish society can go back.

Do you think that the Islamic countries will be reluctant in recognition, because of religious solidarity with Turkey?

Generally I do not think so because we can see now that the Arab world is in the upheaval. They are fighting for survival. And at the same time Turkey has never been accepted as a leader of either the Arabs or Muslims. Sunni Turkey and Shiite Iran are exceptions, not leaders.

The question “Do you think the United States are going to recognize the Genocide in 2015?” may sound too blunt, however, do you see any signs for that?

Probably not. But that is not that important for two reasons. Firstly, to say in Armenian, ’amotutyunn irancn e’, that is ’it is their problem’. Secondly, it is Turkey that we need to pressure to recognize first, before anybody else. Interestingly, once Turkey recognizes the [Armenian] Genocide, all the other countries that have not done so will look ridiculous, morally bankrupt.

According to recent reports, representatives of Turkey have invited the Armenian Diaspora of the United States to discussions on the threshold of April 24...  

Well, if it is sincere, it is too little and too late. If it is not sincere, it will not work. Let us be realistic. Last year Turks invited Diaspora Armenians to New York. Nobody came. This year Armenians met with Turks in America and the Armenians said, "All you have to do is recognize the Genocide." No Armenian should be criticized for this position.

Aram Gareginyan

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