Europe is likely to face the upcoming winter heating season with the lowest levels of underground gas storage (UGS) in 15 years, potentially leading to a sharp rise in gas prices for businesses and households in the winter, the Financial Times reports, citing a forecast by consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

According to the company, by the end of the stockpiling season, which usually lasts from April to October, European gas storage facilities will be only 76 percent full. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), this would be the lowest level since at least 2011.

The current gas deficit is due to the consequences of the US-Iran conflict, which has led to the suspension of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a reduction in production in Qatar and the UAE.

Another negative factor is the European Union's (EU) plans to impose a complete ban on Russian LNG—which currently accounts for about 14 percent of total European liquefied gas imports—starting from January 1, 2027.

After a particularly cold winter, EU gas storage facilities have started the replenishment phase with only 28 percent full, which is significantly lower than the usual level for this time of year. According to GIE, their average fill rate is currently 48 percent.

On January 26, 2026 the EU Council approved a complete ban on Russian LNG supplies, starting from January 1, 2027, and pipeline gas supplies, starting from September 30 of the same year. Moreover, the ban on the import of LNG under short-term contracts came into effect on April 25, 2026, and similar contracts for the supply of pipeline gas were to be terminated by June 17.