In 2022, Russia's GDP will shrink by 11.2%, according to a World Bank report on the prospects for the economies of Europe and Central Asia against the background of the Russian military operation in Ukraine.

According to WB experts, uncertainty about forecasts is unprecedentedly high, this is due to the course of hostilities in Ukraine and the reaction of the world community to what is happening. The report's authors point to the severe consequences of the sanctions already in place that are expected to bring the Russian economy down, largely due to shrinking domestic demand.

In 2023 and 2024, GDP growth is expected to be 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively.

According to the World Bank forecast, inflation in Russia will accelerate to 22% by the end of 2022 (in 2021 it was 9%). Exports of goods and services will decrease by 30.9%, imports - by 35.2%. The share of the population with incomes below the established poverty line will grow to 12.8% in 2022 from 11% in 2021 – by 2.6 million people, experts expect.

As for Ukraine, according to the results of the current year, the reduction of the country's GDP may amount to 45%. Such a forecast is based on a massive reduction in imports and exports due to trade disruptions, a collapse in the public and private sectors, and a significant drop in household spending.

By 2025, analysts expect, the economy may grow by 5% or more, but GDP will still be significantly below the level that it was before the start of the military operation.

The World Bank admits that in 2022 in Ukraine the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level may reach 70% (compared to 18% in 2021).