Europe is still very dependent on Russian oil supplies, although only three months remain before the entry into force of a complete European ban on maritime imports of Russian oil, writes Bloomberg.

Flows to the EU countries since the beginning of August have recovered to about 1 million barrels per day. This is higher than levels observed at the end of July, but much lower than the peaks in April and June.

The ban goes into effect Dec. 5, exactly three months from now, but European cargo purchases will slow at least a month before then to ensure compliance. The future of Russian oil is critical to the world market. If the ban prevents exports, which U.S. officials worry about, it will hit global supplies. If exports go elsewhere, the result could be a complex and costly redistribution of global cargo flows.

All Russian oil shipments rose to a four-week high in the week to Sept. 2, according to ship tracking data. All figures were revised to exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade. These are KazTransoil shipments transiting Russia for export via Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk.

Kazakhstani barrels are blended with oil of Russian origin to create a single export grade. After the war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those sent by Russian companies. Transit oil is specifically exempted from European Union sanctions on Russian shipping, which are due to take effect in December.

Total Russian offshore oil flows rose to 3.32 million barrels per day in the seven days to Sept. 2. That compares with 2.95 million barrels the previous week. Using a four-week moving average to smooth out the variability in the numbers, shipments fell to 3.06 million barrels per day in the four weeks through Sept. 2, compared to 3.08 million barrels per day in the period through Aug. 26.

Based on current directions, the average flow of Russian oil to Asia continued to decline, dropping to 1.59 million barrels per day in the four weeks through Sept. 2 from more than 2.1 million barrels per day in April and May.