Reuters assesses the possible consequences of secondary sanctions against Russia promised by US President Donald Trump. According to the agency's observer, these measures could deal a serious blow to Russian oil exports, but oil traders do not yet believe that the White House will actually follow through on its threats.

Oil revenues have accounted for 30% to 50% of Russia's federal budget in recent years and are the Kremlin's main source of income, the agency notes. The main buyers of Russian oil are China, India, and Turkey.

Western countries have now set a price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian oil, but Moscow has learned to successfully circumvent these restrictions, including with the help of a “shadow fleet.”

The publication states that if the Trump administration does indeed impose a 100% secondary tariff on countries trading with Russia, “this could radically reduce Russia's oil revenues, as it would cut off opportunities to circumvent the current sanctions regime.”

“But oil traders don't believe it. After Trump's statements, oil prices actually fell by more than a dollar, demonstrating investors' uncertainty that Trump will actually carry out his threat,” the publication says.

The reason for this is that “effective secondary sanctions against Russian oil exports are likely to lead to a sharp rise in prices on the global energy market.”

This “will increase global inflationary pressure and ultimately hurt American consumers, which Trump does not want,” Reuters notes.

“In effect, investors are betting on the assertion that the more extreme Trump's threats are, the less likely they are to be carried out. That may be a good bet, but it is also a risky one,” the agency concludes.

On Monday, Donald Trump said he would impose secondary sanctions on Russia if it did not agree to a peace deal in Ukraine within 50 days.