Hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone will not be resumed – Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is too wise and farsighted a politician to unleash a new war in the region, Anatoly Tsiganok, Head of the Center for Military Prognosis, Institute for Political and Military Analysis (IPMA), told NEWS.am.

He stressed that the Collective Security Treaty organization (CSTO), NATO, other international organizations, as well as Russia, will do their best to prevent hostilities in the region. “No one needs a war in the south Caucasus – neither the USA nor Russia nor Europe,” Tsiganok said. He pointed out that the unleashing of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region depends to a great extent on Russia’s attitude. The expert stressed that neither Russia nor the CSTO will interfere is hostilities should be resumed. As regards Washington’s position, Tsiganok said the Armenian lobby is much stronger there than its Azerbaijani counterpart. “It is no mere chance that the U.S. Congress includes financial aid to Nagorno-Karabakh in the U.S. draft budget every year. It is most serious and means support for Stepanakert’s actions,” the expert said. As regard the negotiation process, Tsiganok stressed that it will never be a success without Nagorno-Karabakh.

Speaking of the Azerbaijani President’s recent bellicose statements, Tsiganok said that they are intended for Ankara, being aimed at preventing the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border. “The Ankara-Baku relations strained by Baku’s wish to raise the oil price and Turkey’s refusal to pay more have even worsened because of the possible reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border. Azerbaijan views this prospect as running counter to its interests,” Tsiganok said. He stressed that He stressed Turkey is the main player in the post-Soviet area, its potential being even great than that of Russia. “On the other hand, it is a good thing that Russia and Turkey have common interests in the post-Soviet area, including their interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and Ankara-Yerevan relations,” the expert said.