“There can be no package solution to all Caucasusian problems,” European Stability Initiative analyst Tigran V. Mkrtchyan said in his interview with Turkish Cumhuriyet. According to him, it is impossible to have a package solution to all the problems in the region. Therefore Ankara should give priority to developing bilateral relations. Mkrtchyan thinks that the AKP government signed the protocols with Armenia but the government was unable to predict what kind of pressure it would face afterwards from the nationalists in Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Do you have any doubts on the sincerity of the AKP government, vis a vis protocols?

If the protocols are to be rejected or if the ratification process would be made to last for months or years then I would doubt the sincerity of the AKP government. The negotiations have proceeded without any Karabakh discussion. Those were negotiations about establishment and development of bilateral relations. Indeed if we wish to establish a regional peace and stability we would need to normalize our relations first and foremost. Package solution to the regional issues despite well intended, but is not pragmatic, given the differences of threat perceptions, alignments and aspirations of the countries of the wider Caucasus region.

I do not want to exclude the fact that AKP government proceeded the negotiations having in mind that it would be able to tackle the Azerbaijani or internal nationalist pressures and hence did not think thoroughly about delivering this policy to its probable opponents. And after the “road map” statement in April and the release and signing of the Protocols it faced an “unanticipated” pressure. Just one thing must be clarified that Turkey closed the borders with Armenia in 1993 because of the NK conflict. But we should understand that Turkey had never had any diplomatic relations with Armenia ever since 1991 when Armenia got independence.

Is there a B plan, in case Turkey does not ratify the protocols within the timeframe agreed upon (as said by Armenian officials)? Or do you think that the whole process will come to nothing?

There is that danger indeed. The Turkish FM says that the situation is to develop in the positive light. Armenia understandably wishes for quick ratification which is in itself a positive direction for development of relations on a bilateral level. Armenia does not want to fall under artificial pressures for Karabakh solution. The conflict involves three sides, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh and is mediated by the Minsk Group co-chairs. But through Turkey, Azerbaijan presents the issue to the international community that progress in the NK talks depends on Armenia's willingness to make concession. By falling under Azerbaijani conditionality factor Turkey may risk the total freezing of the signed protocols.

Additionally, Turkey may try to use the mere existence of the protocols with the sub-commission of “historical dimension”, without ratifying them, to block any international recognition of the Armenian genocide. Even though Turkey may delay this process, but ultimately Turkey can not stop the recognition and/or condemnation of the Armenian genocide.

Dou you think that 24th of April, is kind of a natural deadline?

April 24th may be a deadline for Turkish ratification by the international community. Armenia does not propose any deadlines. “Reasonable timeframe” is the phrase used by international mediators and by Armenian leadership. Such a timeframe would mean ratification within months and not years.