The RA National Statistical Service recently published the results of livestock inventory in the Armenian households and commercial enterprises as of January 1, 2010.

To tell the truth, the inventory results hardly inspire any hope for a bright future of the Armenian livestock sector. The cattle head showed a decrease except for swine. Specifically, the cattle head showed a 2.4% as compared with January 1, 2009 – a 3.2% decrease in the number of cows, 8.6% decrease in the number of sheep and 8.9% decrease in the number of goats.

Some experts accounts for this decrease by a poor level of the Armenian veterinary service. Evidence thereof is the recent outburst of cattle plague, which caused a loss of swine. Two years ago, about 15,000 swine were slaughtered. According to the latest information, the plague killed 44 swine in the Tavush region, and 302 had to be slaughtered for the disease to be stopped.

The livestock population is also affected by the recent active export of cattle to Iran. Specifically, the exports of live animals and animal produce totaled U.S. $0.4 this January – an increase of 82.2% as compared with last January. This figure may well reach several million dollars by the end of this year.

As regards the export of sheep to Iran (the product is in great demand in the country), RA Minister of Agriculture Gerasim Alaversyan made an interesting comment. According to him, it does not constitute any threat to the sheep head in Armenia – their number may even double in a year! At a rough estimate, with such a high reproduction rate, the head sheep would reach several million in Armenia within a few years. Unfortunately, however, for some “unknown” reasons, it did not happen. On the contrary, the head of sheep decreased down to 511,000.

As regards the rise in beef prices, Mr. Alaverdyan explained it by seasonality. Let us, however, compare the prices this January-February with those in the corresponding period last year. The beef price showed a rise of 15.5%, and the mutton price by as much as 68.5%. To compare, the index of poultry price is 103.7% — a rise of 3.7%. So the Minister’s “seasonality factor” has failed…

T.P.