In the context of the recently published Armenian-Turkish agreements, which, if ratified by the two Parliaments, will inaugurate the bilateral relations, the press provided extensive coverage of Armenia’s possible involvement in the Nabucco project. Let us not make guesses about whether it is a PR action designed to shape a positive public opinion in Armenia on the threshold of an important historical process or a realistic outlook. We will only try to outline the regional and geopolitical importance of the project for Armenia and Armenia’s importance for the project.

  1. It may seem paradoxical, but the many years of blockade of Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey allowed the country to form a rather balanced energy system, which, perhaps, is much more efficient and better integrated than its Georgian and Azerbaijani counterparts. We can speak of Georgia’s unstable and rather vulnerable system, which is almost fully dependent on import, whereas its Armenian counterpart is an export-oriented one, which has alternative routes and a gas storage system, a system of hydro-and heat-power plants being modernized, projects of constructing an Iran-Armenia pipeline, and, to crown it all, the planned construction of a new nuclear-power plant. It would be at least illogical to speak of a blockade with Armenia having such an infrastructure.
  2. The considerable assistance on the part of the Russian state-run holdings – Gasprom, Inter-RAO and Rosatom – contributes to the stability of Armenia’s energy system as well. Let us not guess at whether it is good or bad. We are only stating the fact of the system’s uninterrupted operation, as well as of long-term investment plans. Moreover, the three companies’ interests and projects are interrelated and are aimed at expanding the Armenian energy business to the neighboring countries. This accounts for the plans to “synchronize” the countries’ energy systems, with Armenia to become “the central point.”
  3. Armenia’s involvement in the Nabucco project implies that of Russia and Iran, as well as the laying of an Armenia-Turkey gas main or the connection of the Iran-Armenia gas main to the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas main, which supplies gas from the Shah Deniz gas field.
  4. It is obvious that the project will be a success only if Iran and Russia are involved. That became clear the very moment Russia initiated the South Stream project, which actually put an end to the planned construction of a Transcaspian gas pipeline. Under the South Stream project Russia launched an initiative of a Caspian-bordering gas pipeline thereby crabbing Azerbaijan’s game. The vigorous actions of Russia and China in Central Asia made the Nabucco clients put up with the idea of involving Iran in the project and that of prospective supply of Turkmen gas to the South Caucasus, with the gas main to bypass the Caspian Sea in the south. That is it will run through Iran. Thus, the Armenian and Iranian territories will be used for the Central Asian gas to reach the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas main, as Azerbaijan will not be able to operate it at its full capacity in the near future. An optimal solution – an Armenia-Turkey gas main – is not ruled out as well. An argument in favor of this is, particularly, Gazprom President Alexey Miller’s statement that the Armenian territory could be used for Iranian-Turkish “swaps.”
  5. Speaking of the “swaps”, Miller may have implied the “gas for energy” scheme as well. The commissioning of the 5th power unit of the Hrazdan heat power plant, which is the terminal point of the Iran-Armenia gas main, will launch a unique technological scheme, Iranian gas for Armenian electric energy. Chinese specialists are now constructing the 5th power unit ordered by the ArmRosgazprom Company (Gazprom 80%, RA Government 20%). Iran and Armenia are also implementing a high-voltage power line construction program. Settling its problems with Turkey, will enable Armenia to enter the energy markets of Turkey and Nakhichevan, which will meet Azerbaijan’s own interests.
  6. The implementation of the Nabucco project with Armenia’s participation will mean a Russian-European energy consensus with Turkey’s participation.
  7. An argument in favor of the last option is official Ankara’s completely unexpected consent to the South Stream gas pipeline – a supposed rival to Nabucco — running through Turkey’s territorial waters. However, the distribution of resources between the two projects and the refusal to lay a pipeline through the Caspian bottom resolved the most serious political disagreements between the interested parties.
  8. Fears about future Russian-Ukrainian relations contributed to the Russian-European consensus on the Nabucco and South Stream projects. We should remember that Europe felt “all the pleasures” of cold winter without gas last year.

NEWS.am Analytical Department