The volume of world trade in 2021 will reach a record $28.5 trillion, the UNCTAD report indicates.

This is 25% more than in 2020 and 13% more than in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic struck. Although the largest increase in global trade came in the first half of 2021, progress continued in the second half of the year. After a relatively slow third quarter, trade growth accelerated again in the fourth quarter when trade in goods increased by almost $200 billion, reaching a new record of $5.8 trillion. Meanwhile, services trade rose by $50 billion to $1.6 trillion, just above pre-pandemic levels.

Imports and exports grew well above pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2021 in all major trading countries in 2019. But merchandise trade grew stronger in developing countries than in developed countries. Developing country exports were about 30% higher than for the same period in 2020, compared with 15% for richer countries.

Growth was higher in commodity-exporting regions as commodity prices rose. In addition, South-South trade growth was above the global average, up 32% year-on-year.

With the exception of transport equipment, all sectors saw their trade value increase significantly in the final quarter of 2021 compared to the previous year.

High fuel prices are responsible for the strong growth in the value of trade in the energy sector. Trade growth in metals and chemicals was also above average.

As a result of a global shortage of semiconductors, growth in trade in communications equipment, road vehicles and precision instruments slowed.

The UNCTAD report indicates that trade growth will slow down in the first quarter of 2022.

Positive growth rates are expected for both merchandise trade and services, although marginally, with trade volumes remaining similar to the last three months of 2021. The positive trend in international trade in 2021 was largely the result of higher commodity prices, an easing of pandemic-related restrictions and a strong recovery in demand thanks to economic stimulus packages.

Trade growth in 2022 is likely to be lower than expected given macroeconomic trends.

The International Monetary Fund has revised its global growth forecast down by 0.5 points, the report notes, given persistent inflation in the US and concerns about China's real estate sector.

It also points to ongoing disruptions in logistics and rising energy prices, stating that efforts to reduce supply chains and diversify suppliers could affect global trade patterns in 2022.

In terms of trade flows, the report predicts a trend towards increased regionalisation due to various trade agreements and regional initiatives, as well as an increasing reliance on geographically closer suppliers.

In addition, trade patterns in 2022 are expected to reflect growing global demand for sustainable products.

The report also notes record levels of global debt, and warns that concerns about debt sustainability are likely to intensify due to rising inflationary pressures.

Significant tightening of financial conditions will increase pressure on the most indebted governments, increase vulnerabilities and negatively impact investment and international trade flows.