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March 29
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World trade is on the rise, which could be the beginning of a long upswing. Such optimistic data is given by the Institute for World Economics (IfW) in Kiel, Germany, in its traditional summary of the dynamics of global export-import flows, the Kiel Trade Indicator. According to IfW analysts, international trade rose 2.1 percent in January compared to the previous month, adjusted for seasonal effects and price fluctuations.

German and European foreign trade especially benefited. For example, German exports rose 2.1 percent and imports rose 2.6 percent.

Germany is clearly benefiting from strong demand for German products abroad, which is also reflected in a large order book, explained Timo Hoffman, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator project.

The European Union's figures are even higher, at 3.0 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Russia, despite sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, was able to increase its maritime trade and exports and imports by 2.2 and 1.1 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, the situation in the United States and China is not so good. The United States showed a plus of 3.6 percent in exports, but had to put up with a minus of 1.4 percent in imports. In China, exports were up 1.9 percent and imports were down 1.1 percent. That said, according to Timo Hoffman, Chinese trade has room to grow. Weak imports point to weak domestic demand, he said.

The positive start to the year has been accompanied by a reduced strain on the world's oceans. Only eight percent of all goods transported by ocean-going vessels are currently delayed, according to IfW. At the peak of the shipping problems, the figure was nearly 14 percent. This means that for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the unsynchronization of container shipments, shipping congestion has returned to pre-pandemic levels, Hoffman said.

According to the expert, the main reason is probably because there are fewer goods being shipped by sea around the world. On the one hand, this can be explained by the fact that freight forwarders have presumably organized alternative transportation routes by rail or road due to congestion in maritime transportation and skyrocketing freight rates and now support them, he noted.

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