YEREVAN. – The TNS opinion presented Friday the results of its survey “Poll: A Snapshot ahead of Armenia’s Presidential Elections,” which describes the moods, voting preferences and motivations of the Armenian voters just before the beginning of the official electoral campaign period.

Starting from a high basis, ruling Republican Party Chairman, incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan seems to have profited from the non-nomination of political opponents and enters the official campaign period with 68.6 percent of valid votes (valid responses are without "Don't know" and "Refuse to answer"; raw data with "Don't know" and "Refuse to answer": 44,0%). Opposition Heritage Party Chairman, former FM Raffi Hovannisian has established himself as the key challenger and multiplied his electoral base compared to the results of his party in the parliamentary elections of May 2012. If presidential elections took place last week, he would have scored 20.8 percent of the valid votes (raw data: 13.3%). While opposition National Self-Determination Union Chairman Paruyr Hayrikyan and opposition Freedom Party Chairman, former PM Hrant Bagratyan each gain almost 5 percent of the valid votes, the remaining four of the eight official candidates are largely unknown to the poll respondents and altogether score less than 1.5 percent of valid votes (raw 0.9%).

Seventy-two percent of the respondents are confident that Serzh Sargsyan will be reelected.

The TNS opinion poll, implemented together with their local partner IPSC, 1,607 face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 10 regions (marzes) and 12 communities of Yerevan between 15 and 20 January 2013. The poll was commissioned by European Friends of Armenia (EuFoA) NGO.

“This was a poll conducted to the highest standards and the data is indeed very reliable. I think the most striking result was that 69 percent of the respondents are already certain to take part in the elections. This is an encouraging surprise, as three out of six parliamentary forces did not present or support any candidate. Our poll shows that more than half of the supporters of these parties feel that this was a wrong decision, but apparently most of them still take the elections seriously and intend to vote” comments Dr Steve Schwarzer, Director for Methods and Statistics at TNS opinion, Brussels.72 % of poll participants said that they are sure the incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan will be re-elected for the second term.