The International Monetary Fund expects energy exporters in the Middle East and Central Asia to earn a combined windfall of about $1 trillion in oil revenues between 2022 and 2026.
The petrodollar inflows will be larger than the IMF predicted a year ago, a reflection of higher oil prices, even as recession fears pull oil prices down in the second half of the year. According to the IMF, Saudi Arabia and the five other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council would benefit even more, as they could save about a third of their income from oil.
That's a much higher savings rate than those that broke out into negative territory after past oil price declines, in stark contrast to the procyclical fiscal policies of the past," the IMF said in a regional economic report.
According to the fund, the average current account surplus for the Gulf countries is expected to be nearly 10 percent of the gross domestic product in 2022, nearly double last year's level, and is projected to reach 7.8 percent in 2023.
The divergence from energy importers is now particularly striking. The region's emerging market and middle-income countries, including Pakistan, will see their external financing needs rise to 242% of gross international reserves, or $275 billion, this year.
Economic growth in the Gulf is likely to more than double from last year to 6.5 percent in 2022, only slightly above the IMF's April forecast, and help boost GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa to 5 percent.
Expecting lower oil prices next year, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 3.6% in both the Gulf and the Middle East as a whole.
With high inflation, rising interest rates, the global energy crisis, and tightening credit markets, oil wealth in the Gulf has become more important than ever as a source of capital.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, its sovereign wealth fund is investing billions of dollars in stock markets and assets around the world, playing an increasingly important role in financing development at home, Bloomberg reported.
The IMF warned that while oil-exporting governments are expected to avoid the pro-cyclical responses of the past, there is a risk that other state entities, such as state-owned enterprises and sovereign wealth funds, will spend unanticipated oil revenues.
The fund estimates that international reserves in the GCC countries -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman -- will total nearly $843 billion this year and rise to more than $950 billion in 2023.

















