US President Donald Trump’s international aid freeze will evaporate funding for civil society groups across Eastern Europe, undercutting pro-democracy initiatives and creating an open goal for Russia to boost its hold on the region, writes Politico.

The Trump administration’s steps toward dismantling the US Agency for International Development (USAID)—pausing most existing foreign aid for 90 days pending review and placing nearly all its employees on paid leave—directly affects ongoing humanitarian and development projects worldwide.

The effects will be particularly profound in Europe, where USAID pledged $17.2 billion worth of aid in 2023, the lion’s share of which went to Eastern European countries bordering Russia.

The money, equivalent to 40 percent of the agency’s total aid commitments, is used to fund projects ranging from democratic reforms to energy infrastructure and disease prevention.

For countries like Armenia, Georgia and Ukraine, where Russia’s shadow looms large, analysts have warned that cuts to aid from Washington would dramatically strengthen Moscow’s hand and reinforce the narrative of unreliable Western partners.

“This move undermines confidence in the U.S. and trust in democracy,” said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center, an independent think tank based in Armenia. “It also means that the U.S. is neglecting the soft power capable of countering Russian narratives.”

Ultimately, he added, “the freeze of USAID funds only makes authoritarian governments happy.”

Russia is already present in these countries, said Tinatin Akhvlediani, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, adding that losing foreign funding will only strengthen its malign influence. “The Kremlin will continue to build this narrative that these countries are alone, that the West is abandoning them, that the U.S. and Western countries are not strong allies.”

The EU is already a major aid provider to the region. In 2023 the bloc’s member countries disbursed €19.6 billion to six countries in the Eastern neighborhood—Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Belarus, and Armenia—either bilaterally or through EU institutions.

Yet replacing the US funding would require mobilizing millions more in a region where Europe’s influence has ebbed and flowed in past years.

Brussels’ development assistance to most countries in the region—with the exception of Ukraine and Moldova—fell between 2019 and 2023, partly due to domestic legislation aimed at curtailing activities that could promote pro-EU sentiments.