Military rhetoric of Azerbaijani authorities is a part of negotiation strategy. Marko Papic, the analyst on geopolitical issues in Stratfor (US intelligence centre), told top7.az. “We should not forget that threats can also be a part of negotiations. Threat of war is a part of negotiation strategy of Baku which is absolutely clear. However, we in Stratfor have no evidence that these threats are justifiable.”

As to the question whether Azerbaijan or Armenia will win if the war breaks out, analyst underlined that: “the most feasible result of the conflict will be if Karabakh maintains its current status. It means that no one wins. Indefeasible victory of Baku or Yerevan is not in the world powers’ interests. The current circumstances take favorable turn for Baku or Yerevan not because of world powers’ interests, but because Russia gains in frozen Karabakh conflict”.

“Despite the Armenians victory in the first phase of war, presently Baku runs rearmament campaign. Oil income allowed Azerbaijan to increase military budget and outgo Armenia for 5 times. Finally, larger population and abundant natural recourses make Azerbaijan a formidable adversary of Armenia. Nevertheless it is unclear yet whether Azerbaijani troops are trained enough to start Karabakh liberation campaign,” Papic concluded.