YEREVAN. – The likelihood of new attempts at a major escalation of tension in Karabakh depends on Baku’s finances; that is, on the oil prices, Caucasus Institute Director, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan, said at a press conference on Tuesday.

In his words, we should not forget that Azerbaijan spent close to US$20 billion on arms, in the last several years, and such resources are needed, at the least, to retry the aforesaid attempt. Due to the drop in oil prices, however, Azerbaijan no longer has as much financial independence as before; and this means that international players will have more opportunities for putting pressure on Baku.

“Now, the situation has changed,” added the analyst. 

As for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Minsk Group (OSCE MG) mediators, in Iskandaryan’s words, it is apparent that the OSCE MG has changed its respective work style.

“For several years now, the mediators are not engaged in attempts to settle the [Karabakh] conflict,” noted Alexander Iskandaryan. “They are [now] trying to not settle the problem, but to minimize the violence; and as best option, to reduce it.

“And we can observe that the level of escalation [of tension] is lower now than until [early] April 2016 [when Azerbaijan had unleashed a large-scale military aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh)].”