The US president's bid to cushion the oil shock retaliation continues to meet resistance from the two allies he needs most, writes The Guardian.

“Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman, and his counterpart in the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, are yet to agree to a phone call with the west’s most powerful man – a scenario all but unthinkable during previous administrations.

Biden’s immediate priority is for both countries to help exert maximum economic pressure on Russia by cranking up their oil output. Each capital is a major supplier of oil, with excess capacity, which would soften the effect on US consumers through fuel prices before midterm elections in November that threaten Democratic control of Congress," the article reads.

However, with relations between the Middle East oil powers and Washington at their lowest point, it's time for a reckoning that could change the regional order on terms favoring Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Both leaders have made it clear that they will not settle for less.

As if trying to show the Biden administration what they can do, UAE Ambassador to Washington Yousef al-Otaiba said last Wednesday that he was in favor of increasing production “and will encourage OPEC to consider increasing production levels,” which would lead to a fall in oil prices. by 13% the next day. But no action was taken to increase supply, and by the end of the week the price per barrel had risen again to almost $130.

However, the confrontation is connected not only with oil. In Riyadh, Prince Mohammed feels insulted by Biden's refusal to engage with him since he took office. The assassination of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, the war in Yemen, the imprisonment of human rights activists and the boycott of Qatar have made him a pariah for the administration.

The differences with Abu Dhabi are almost as sharp. The US has been particularly stunned by the UAE's repeated abstention from UN votes.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been outraged that the Biden administration has removed the Iranian-backed Houthis from the global terrorist list as Washington continues talks with Iran to restart the Obama-era nuclear deal that Donald Trump tore apart.

Beyond that, however, there is a strong sense in both capitals that Biden has approached the region with deep criticism of countries that have long been security allies and a condescending attitude towards Iran, which remains an enemy.

Having tried last week to involve Venezuela in the cause of isolating Russia, the White House sees efforts to restore relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE as an acceptable price.

In February, the administration sent Brett McGurk, the White House's Middle East policy coordinator, and Amos Hochstein, the State Department's special energy representative, to Riyadh to meet with the crown prince. On the eve of the invasion of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance announced sanctions against the alleged Houthi funding network.

Former British Ambassador to Riyadh and Senior Fellow at the British think tank Policy Exchange, Sir John Jenkins believes that the ties that have grown between Riyadh and Moscow, especially since Biden's sidelining of Prince Mohammed, should probably be recalibrated.

“I think it’s very complicated,” he said. “I wouldn’t make a one-way bet on Putin myself. But that’s how the Saudi position in particular will look to many in DC. That will just piss people off. And tempt them in turn to bet on Iran instead. You have to deal with [Prince Mohammed]. But if he demands a complete climbdown from Biden, I don’t think he’ll get it.

“There has to be some way of squaring this circle. A renewed US promise to defend KSA [Saudi Arabia] and the UAE from Iran is one way. Redesignation of the Houthis and a renewed commitment to settling Yemen in a way that would suit Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is another. But I can’t see Biden saying he’s simply going to forget Khashoggi.

“I personally don’t think Russia matters that much to KSA. China’s far more important. Beijing wants to avoid a collapse of global trade – or a prolonged western recession. And there are signs Beijing is trying to position itself appropriately. The risk then is that a hard line from Riyadh will just backfire.”

Robin Mills, CEO of UAE-based consultancy Qamar Energy, said that increasing oil supplies and therefore lowering prices at filling stations is a relatively simple technical process, but comes with political and economic risks in dealing with the global oil organization OPEC, of ​​which OPEC is a member. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

“They could ramp up supply within one month and reach full capacity within 90 days,” he said. “Opening chokes on wells, restarting wells entirely, perhaps restarting gathering and production stations.

“Everyone has always cheated on Opec agreements when it suited them. Can you do it quickly? Not tomorrow, certainly. But unless something’s gone seriously wrong, KSA should be able to make a three-month difference. That in itself would help – to a degree – in calming oil markets.”