NEWS.am interviewed Ruben Mehrabyan, expert of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies.

Mr. Mehrabyan, Presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev held a meeting in Moscow few days ago. What is your opinion of the results of the meeting, and what are the possible developments in Nagorno-Karabakh peace process?

I do not think that this formally regular meeting was really a regular one – it was preceded by a number of events. Specifically, before the meeting a joint statement of the three OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs and release of the Madrid Principles was issued. Later, we discovered that not all regulations, but just the agreed ones had been made public.

Thereafter, the statements of Bryza and Merzlyakov clarified that a specific talk about the topics that had not been elaborated on before occurred. We can say that we succeeded in reaching a point of no return.

Thereupon, the consensus on agreed points between the leaders of three states (Russia, USA and France) is much higher now. On the other hand, the role of the principal negotiators – Armenia and Azerbaijan, has dramatically diminished. Also, the conversation lasted a while and personally, I do not remember any meetings as long as that one, which makes me think of the discussed topics’ urgency, and will have a logical continuation in fall this year to reconcile on some issues.

What is your opinion on six Madrid Principles?

The Madrid Principles indicate the context of future settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. They also specify that it will be a political, phased and peaceful resolution. What we have at hand is agreed, but, actually, not all the aspects, as the conflict is a very complicated one. The points are not consummate either.

New points will definitely be added, and we will see the 7th, 8th and 10th points. Further this six points will be extended as well. The content is not quite clear and can be interpreted in any way. A de facto independent state can be made de jure independent, that is, another Kosovo. The six points can also be used to force Armenians to leave Karabakh, thereby turning it into a Serbian Kraina.

If the six points are put into practice without modification, it may lead to unpredictable consequences for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. And thus, the current tension in both countries, as well as in Nagorno-Karabakh, is quite understandable.

Which of the Madrid Principles are of the greatest concern to Armenia?

Certainly, the first and the third. Under the first, Armenia is to cede the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Under the third, a corridor between Armenia and NKR will be opened in exchange for the territories. It is unclear what will be opened and who is going to control the corridor? What does “control by Azerbaijan” mean? Very dangerous scenarios can be constructed on the basis of the principles.

One has the impression that some people are enthusiastic about the publication of Madrid Principles, whereas Azerbaijani politicians accepted them fairly rigorously. Firstly, I do not take seriously this wide-eyed enthusiasm, with no basis and the inner excitement is hardly corresponds to what is shown to public.

As for Azerbaijani side, they most likely see kind of accounts to square within the governmental circles rather than a substantial discussion. The principles overall are not clear and concrete. I would not draw a parallel between the enthusiasm in the pro-governmental camp and the howl wailed in Azerbaijan.

Militaristic rhetoric is growing stronger in Azerbaijan. In your opinion, what is the probability of a new war?

I would like to differentiate a threat of war and militant rhetoric. Militant rhetoric is one of the main political levers of Azerbaijan directed basically towards the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs and the regional players, that will not benefit from resumed war anyhow. Azerbaijan is thus trying to speed up the process. This is also a lever for Azerbaijan energy business. Presently, I do not see a real threat of war resuming, as an outcome of hostilities is unclear for me. Is Azerbaijan ready to sacrifice tens of thousands of lives to achieve its dream – even so cherished one? It is petrodollars that are of interest to Azerbaijan, but not sacrifices for the land left by Azerbaijanis about 20 years ago. Azerbaijan is not ready for sacrifices. By resuming this war it will become like a Good Soldier Švejk.