Turkey's upcoming elections mean there is a narrow window left to tighten monetary policy, fight runaway inflation and defend the lira, writes Onur Ant in a Bloomberg op-ed.

Turkey's central bank acted on the orders of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and cut interest rates to 14 percent from 19 percent at the end of last year. He kept borrowing costs steady even as inflation soared to nearly 80 percent, leading to some of the world's most negative real interest rates. Lira fell sharply in price.

Erdogan disagrees with investors and economists that monetary policy should be changed to ensure prices rise slowly and the lira is less vulnerable. Even if Erdogan drops his belief that higher interest rates fuel inflation, the political calendar leaves him little room for action.

Higher interest rates could lead to a recession, and with elections scheduled for June 2023, the chances of a rate hike are slim.

Erdogan's best-case scenario is a mess without an all-out explosion of inflation, a sell-off of the lira, or a drastic economic downturn.